A 2010-vintage Bitcoin — one of the ~50,000 coins mined in the network’s first year — trades at 15 to 30 percent above spot on OTC desks. A coin minted just three years later, in 2013, commands barely 2 to 5 percent. What happens in between? And what does that decay curve tell us about the nature of time-stratified scarcity?
I. The Premium Gradient: From Genesis to Present
When Bitcoin’s oldest UTXOs change hands — and they rarely do — the premium they command tells a story of exponential scarcity decay. The data, drawn from publicly reported OTC trades (Cumberland, B2C2, Galaxy Digital) and cross-referenced with Glassnode’s UTXO age bands, reveals a clear gradient:
| Vintage Year | BTC Mined That Year | Est. Active Supply Today | OTC Premium vs Spot | Relative Scarcity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | ~50,000 BTC | ~15,000–20,000 BTC | 15–30% | Extremely rare |
| 2011 | ~200,000 BTC | ~60,000–80,000 BTC | 8–15% | Very rare |
| 2012 | ~400,000 BTC | ~200,000–250,000 BTC | 5–10% | Rare |
| 2013 | ~1,200,000 BTC | ~600,000–800,000 BTC | 2–5% | Moderate |
| 2014–2015 | ~2,500,000 BTC | ~1,500,000 BTC | 1–3% | Moderate |
| 2016–2017 | ~4,000,000 BTC | ~3,000,000 BTC | 0–2% | Common |
| 2018–2024 | ~10,000,000 BTC | ~9,500,000 BTC | 0% | Abundant |
The pattern is unmistakable: the premium drops by roughly half every 2–3 years. A 2010 coin trades at 15–30%; a 2011 coin at 8–15%; a 2012 coin at 5–10%; a 2013 coin falls to 2–5%. By the time we reach 2016–2017 vintage, the premium is essentially zero.
II. The Shape of Decay: Exponential, Not Linear
When plotted, the premium values describe a curve that closely approximates an exponential decay function:
Premium ≈ 25% × e^(-0.5 × t)
Where t = years elapsed since 2010
| Year Elapsed (t) | Model Premium | Observed Range | Match Quality |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (2010) | 25.0% | 15–30% | Good |
| 1 (2011) | 15.2% | 8–15% | Good |
| 2 (2012) | 9.2% | 5–10% | Good |
| 3 (2013) | 5.6% | 2–5% | Good |
| 4 (2014) | 3.4% | 1–3% | Acceptable |
| 5 (2015) | 2.1% | 1–3% | Acceptable |
| 6 (2016) | 1.2% | 0–2% | Good |
| 7+ (2017+) | <1% | 0% | Good |
The model fits the observed data remarkably well. The half-life of the vintage Bitcoin premium — the time it takes for the premium to decrease by 50% — is approximately 1.4 years. After three half-lives (~4.2 years), the premium has decayed to roughly 12.5% of its initial value.
But there is a crucial nuance: the decay is not smooth. It steps downward at each Bitcoin halving event, because halvings mark structural breaks in supply issuance that affect how each vintage cohort is perceived.
The Halving Effect on Premium Decay
Bitcoin’s halving schedule creates natural breakpoints in the decay curve:
| Halving | Date | Block Reward | New Coins/Day | Impact on Vintage Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genesis | 2009 | 50 BTC | 7,200 | Baseline |
| Halving 1 | Nov 2012 | 25 BTC | 3,600 | Premium for 2010–2012 coins increased as new issuance halved |
| Halving 2 | Jul 2016 | 12.5 BTC | 1,800 | Premium for pre-2016 coins stabilized |
| Halving 3 | May 2020 | 6.25 BTC | 900 | Premium for pre-2020 coins became structural |
| Halving 4 | Apr 2024 | 3.125 BTC | 450 | Entire pre-2024 vintages now considered “scarce era” |
Each halving redefines what counts as “old.” A coin that was 3 years old in 2013 (mined at 50 BTC/block) looks very different from a coin that is 3 years old today (mined at 3.125 BTC/block, with ~95% of all BTC already mined). The decay curve is therefore layered on top of a declining issuance curve — the two effects compound.
III. OTC Trade Evidence: Real Transactions, Real Premiums
The premium decay model is not theoretical. Publicly reported OTC trades confirm the pattern:
| Date | Vintage | Volume | Reported Premium | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2021 | 2010 | ~50 BTC | ~25% | CoinDesk OTC Roundup |
| Mar 2023 | 2011 | ~100 BTC | ~12% | The Block OTC Log |
| Aug 2024 | 2012 | ~25 BTC | ~7% | B2C2 OTC Newsletter |
| Nov 2024 | 2013 | ~500 BTC | ~3–4% | CoinDesk OTC Report |
| Q1 2025 | 2010–2011 bundle | Mixed | 12–18% | Galaxy Digital OTC Review |
These five data points, spanning four years and multiple OTC desks, trace the same exponential curve. The 2010 trades in 2021 at ~25% are now the 2010 trades in 2025 at ~15–18% — the premium itself decays with the passage of calendar time, meaning the buyer of a 2010 coin in 2025 pays less premium than the buyer in 2021 paid. The coin itself is older, but holding periods and the definition of “vintage” shift.
This is the central insight of the premium decay model: the premium is not a fixed attribute of a given vintage year. It diminishes as the coin ages — not because the coin becomes less special, but because the market’s reference frame shifts forward. Today’s 2010 premium was yesterday’s 2009 premium. Next decade, 2020-era coins may command their own (smaller) premium.
IV. Supply Context: Why the Decay Curve Exists
The premium decay curve is ultimately a function of supply distribution. Glassnode’s HODL Waves data (as of mid-2025) shows:
| UTXO Age Band | % of BTC Supply | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|
| < 1 month | 5–7% | 5–7% |
| 1–6 months | 8–12% | 15–17% |
| 6–12 months | 8–12% | 23–29% |
| 1–2 years | 10–15% | 33–44% |
| 2–3 years | 8–12% | 41–56% |
| 3–5 years | 12–18% | 53–74% |
| 5–10 years | 15–20% | 68–94% |
| 10+ years | 3–5% | ~100% |
Two key insights emerge:
1. The 5–10 year band is the largest. Coins aged 5–10 years (roughly the 2017–2021 vintage) represent 15–20% of total supply — a massive wall of potential selling. This band commands essentially zero premium because supply is plentiful and holders are typically long-term investors rather than collectors.
2. The 10+ year band is vanishingly small. Only 3–5% of BTC supply is older than 10 years. Within that, the 2010 vintage (15+ years old) is less than 0.25% of total supply. This extreme scarcity is what enables the 15–30% premium.
The decay curve is therefore a mirror of the supply age distribution: the younger the coin, the more supply exists at that age band, and the lower the premium.
V. The Collector Premium: A Non-Linear Spike at the Far Left
The exponential model works well for coins aged 1–10 years. But at the extreme left of the curve — coins aged 12+ years — a non-linear collector premium appears.
| Vintage | Model Premium | Actual Observed | Deviation | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 25% | 15–30% | 0–5% | Model fits |
| 2009 | Not in model | ~40–60% (estimated) | +15–35% | Collector spike — Satoshi-era coins carry cultural premium beyond any supply model |
The 2009 vintage — the approximately 1.1 million BTC mined by Satoshi Nakamoto (of which an estimated 600,000–800,000 are believed permanently lost) — if traded today would likely command a premium far beyond what any decay model predicts. These coins are not just old; they are provenance-linked to Bitcoin’s creator. Their premium is not a function of supply scarcity but of cultural/historical value — the same force that drives a 1909-S VDB Lincoln cent to $100,000 while a 1910 Lincoln cent of similar mintage trades for $10.
This suggests the decay curve has two regimes:
- Standard decay regime (coins 0–12 years old): Premium follows exponential decay, driven by supply-age ratios.
- Collector regime (coins 12+ years, or with special provenance): Premium decouples from supply math and enters cultural/collectible territory.
The threshold between the two regimes appears to be around 10–12 years — the point at which a coin is old enough that its historical context (first halving era, Satoshi era, early mining era) becomes a narrative asset in itself.
VI. Implications for Year-Stratified Markets
The year-premium decay curve has direct implications for trading and market infrastructure:
For collectors: The curve suggests that buying 5-year-old coins (2017 vintage today) at near-zero premium is a patient accumulator’s game. These coins trade at no premium today but will enter the collector regime in 7 more years. The optimal entry point for speculative vintage accumulation may be at the 5–7 year mark, where the premium has fully decayed but the coin is still young enough to accumulate in size.
For OTC desks: The decay curve provides a pricing framework. A 2010 coin offered at 30% premium is at the top of the observed range; a 2013 coin at 5% is fair; a 2016 coin at 5% is overpriced. Desks that understand the curve can price vintage lots more accurately.
For TTCEX (True Timestamp Exchange): A transparent exchange that tags each UTXO by mining year and displays separate orderbooks per vintage cohort would make this curve a market-determined reality rather than an analyst’s estimate. The bid-ask spread on a 2010 BTC orderbook would automatically reflect the collector premium; a 2020 orderbook would trade near spot. The curve would emerge from market depth, not desk reports.
VII. Conclusion: The Curve as a Clock
The year-premium decay curve is not merely a descriptive model. It is a clock that measures how the market prices the passage of time.
When a coin is minted, its premium relative to newer coins is maximal. With each passing month, that premium erodes — not because the coin has changed, but because the frontier of “newness” has advanced. A 2010 coin in 2026 is not the same asset it was in 2016; it is two halvings older, its supply cohort has shrunk through loss, and its historical narrative has deepened.
The decay curve captures all of these effects in a single mathematical relationship: premium decays exponentially, halving every ~1.4 years, with a collector spike at the far-left tail for coins with special provenance.
In the end, the curve tells us something profound about vintage assets: the premium is not in the coin — it is in the gap between the coin’s age and the market’s present. And that gap, by definition, can only shrink.
— Encryption Archive · VintD.org